The Doomsday clock that ticks towards the end of Julia Gillard's prime ministership has been set in motion, but today's Herald/Nielsen poll will slow its tempo.
Within the Labor caucus, confidence in Gillard's leadership stayed aloft even as the public's trust in her collapsed during the past year. Like a cartoon character running in thin air long The Doomsday clock that ticks towards the end of Julia Gillard's prime ministership has been set in motion, but today's Herald/Nielsen poll will slow its tempo.
Within the Labor caucus, confidence in Gillard's leadership stayed aloft even as the public's trust in her collapsed during the past year. Like a cartoon character running in thin air long after the earth has fallen away, it couldn't last.
Public support failed to recover. Gillard made a succession of unforced errors of judgment during the summer break. Last week's Newspoll showed Labor's primary vote at a dismal 30 per cent. Caucus confidence fell precipitously.
The clock started to tick. Despairing Labor MPs and senators started talking to one another about their options. Media speculation of a leadership change accelerated wildly. One more blunder by Gillard would be enough to end her tenure, one advocate of a Rudd return said yesterday.
But today's poll breaks the momentum for change and will alter the atmospherics in Canberra. It may be sadly myopic and dismally short-termist but it's nonetheless true that our nation's political heart beats to the movement of opinion polls.
The poll shows a real boost for Gillard in three key measures of a prime minister's performance - the standing of her party, of herself, and of her appeal relative to the opposition leader. The gains are real, beyond the poll's margin of error.
The Prime Minister's supporters will use this to argue that a comeback is not only possible but that this is the first evidence that it is already under way. But while Gillard's gains are real, they're hard to explain.
The Herald's pollster, Nielsen's John Stirton, said that, unusually, there was no obvious reason for the improvement. But the key point: "This poll is an improvement for Labor but they would still lose," Stirton said.
More specifically, Labor has already lost, in 2010. With today's poll results, it would lose much more decisively.
While the poll is a source of relief for Gillard, it is also a source of sustenance for Rudd. It shows him, yet again, to be a vastly more popular Labor leader and the obvious alternative.
The poll will slow the countdown on Gillard. If it's the beginning of a serious upward trajectory for her, the Doomsday clock will stop. If it is a one-off, the clock will tick on relentlessly.
Follow the @National TimesAU on Twitter
Email a friend