IN A career in which Cadel Evans has ridden hundreds of thousands of kilometres, how he is remembered in sporting history will come down to his performance against the clock on a 53-kilometre stretch of road.
Should Evans, 31, do what most believe he can do on Saturday and produce the race of his life in the 20th-stage time trial of this year's 3560km event, he will become the first Australian winner of the Tour.
For Evans (Silence-Lotto) to achieve that in the 53km "race of truth" from the town of Cerilly in the heart of France to Saint-Amand Montrond, he must overtake Spaniard Carlos Sastre (CSC), whose overall lead on him was one minute, 34 seconds going into Friday's 19th stage from Roanne to Montlucon.
Evans was also on the cusp of history this time last year when he was second overall (not fourth as he was before Friday's stage) to another Spaniard, Alberto Contador, chasing 1:50. However, the big difference is that while Evans rode brilliantly but still fell just 23 seconds shy of breaking one of the last frontiers for Australian sport, he is now the favourite instead of the underdog.
All the statistics and comparative traits of Evans and Sastre point to the Australian surpassing the 33-year-old Spaniard, who took the Tour lead on Wednesday with his stage-17 win to L'Alpe d'Huez. In every time trial over a similar distance in the third week of the Tour since 2005, Evans has come out on top and in margins that have increased from 1:04 to 2:33 last year.
In this year's Tour, Evans also bettered Sastre in the stage-four time trial at Cholet by 1:16 over 29.5km - indicating he has it in him to better Sastre by 2:30 over 53km.
That record of head-to-heads, Evans's pedigree as a time-triallist and the need to save every ounce of energy will have been playing heavily on Sastre's mind, says Phil Anderson, who in 1981 became the first Australian to claim the maillot jaune during the race.
"Sastre will have had some restless nights," Anderson said this week. "He will [also] be riding as if he has eggs between his shoes and pedals, trying to put no force at all on his legs because he has to save every ounce of energy. He is possibly not going to beat Cadel. It is a matter of how much he can get on him."
But statistics and logic don't always add up in sport - especially at the Tour where so many things can happen in so little time and a rider's apparent date with glory can suddenly turn sour. Having the yellow jersey can provide a major lift as well. Past wearers talk of how it lifted them to another plane of performance - there is something in the stitching, they say. Sastre will also start the time trial last and will know the time to beat from comparative time checks.
For Sastre and Evans, this may be their best chance to win the Tour, given
Contador's absence. The Spaniard will be back next year, having missed this year's race because organisers did not invite his Astana team because of its past links with doping controversies under a previous management.
But first, Evans or Sastre have to win this year's title. And neither will underestimate the enormity of the challenge on a time trial course that throws up smooth and rough sections and some long uphill drags.
Evans, who made a reconnaissance of the course early this year, knows every twist, turn and rise.
"It is really a course that suits a time-triallist specialist," Evans said. "It's long, there are a couple of short [climbs], but long drags more than steep climbs. Like always in the last week of the Tour, you need the legs to go and a lot of horsepower."
Evans will ride the course before racing as part of his carefully planned countdown to the stage start. But he won't complicate matters by over-strategising.
"My strategy is to start, go as fast as possible to the finish … simple," he said.
All the fine detail from years of planning, training and research will be left behind when he bursts from the starting ramp committed to a little more than one hour of pain that could define his career.
No stone has been left unturned to make sure he has every chance of turning this ride into a winner, from his own preparation to the design of the Ridley time-trial bike he will be racing on. It has taken years of riding, consultation and testing on the road and in wind tunnels to come up with a bike that gives Evans the optimal aerodynamic gain. Evans has worked closely with the manufacturers, especially on ensuring his best position is found.
"For the position that I can ride. I have quite long upper arms which means I have to have really low handlebars. If you look at my stem, it drops a long way down," Evans said.
"There aren't many bikes in the world that I can sit on and be aerodynamic because of [my] long upper arms. I have to have extremely low handlebars which don't always fit. That is the main thing, but also [we have worked on] the frame, the rigidity … five or six years of work for all the aspects of the bike and so on."
All for 53km of pain that Evans hopes pay off on Saturday. FIGHT FOR THE PODIUM - HOW THE TOP SIX RATE IN THE RACE FOR YELLOW
Carlos Sastre (CSC) 1st overall.
Position:
Nationality: Spanish.
Mission: Won't win the stage but must produce the ride of his life to fend off Cadel Evans by at least 1 minute 34 seconds to defend his yellow jersey.
Frank Schleck (CSC) 2nd at 1min 24s.
Position:
Nationality: Luxembourg.
Mission: Risks dropping out of top three. Efforts from leading the Tour may prove to take a toll. Was 1min 47s behind Evans in stage-four 29.5km trial.
Bernard Kohl (Gerolsteiner) 3rd at 1min 33s.
Position:
Nationality: Austrian.
Mission: Not a rated time triallist. With the likes of Evans, Menchov and Valverde on his tail, he could see his podium position taken away.
Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto) 4th at 1min 34s.
Position:
Nationality: Australian.
Mission: Could win stage and with it the yellow jersey. Down 1min 34s on Sastre, but has ability to make up more than 2mins. Proven third-week racer.
Denis Menchov (Rabobank) 5th at 2mins 39s.
Position:
Nationality: Russian.
Mission: Outside podium chance if Kohl and Schleck fold, even if he is 1 min 5s behind Evans. In stage four, was 7s behind the Australian.
Christian Vande Velde (Garmin-Chipotle) 6th at 4mins 41s.
Position:
Nationality: American.
Mission: Outside podium chance if others suffer the horrors. Showed true time-trial ability on stage four, placing eighth at 37s - 10 behind Evans.
Cadel Evans v Carlos Sastre 1min 4s (over 55km).
Evans's margins over Sastre in third-week time trials:
2005
2006 1min 06s (over 56km).
2007 2min 33s (over 55.5km).
2008 stage-four time trial at Cholet: 1 min 16s (over 29.5km).
Guinness's podium prediction (Aus)
1 Cadel Evans
Silence-Lotto
2 Carlos Sastre (Esp)
CSC at 40s.
3 Frank Schleck (Lux)
CSC at 1 min 56s.