The Indian Ocean Dipole index has been in the positive for four of the past five weeks, according to the Bureau of Meterology.
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The ocean is predicted to be the dominant driver of the climate in the coming months. Sea surface temperatures have shown patterns which are consistent with a positive IOD event since the end of May. The latest value is above the threshold at +.8 degrees.
Positive conditions typically brings below average winter-spring rainfall to southern and central Australia, above average daytime temperatures for the southern two-thirds of the country and an increased fire risk in the south-east.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation remains neutral. Most climate models show that the tropical Pacific is likely to remain neutral for the rest of 2019.
El Nino is typically associated with drought in Australia, but other factors will be the primary influences while it is in the neutral phase.
